Part 1: The Government’s Immigration White Paper

The Home Secretary, Yvette Cooper, argues in the paper that immigration needs to be properly controlled and managed and that for too long it has not been.  The premise is that, as a nation, we need to be able to control our borders, control who is lawfully in the country, who is entitled to work or use public services and the terms on which people can bring family into the UK. 

As part of this plan for change, the Government wants to bring down net migration and restore control and order to the immigration system.

How does the Government intend to bring net migration down?

1. The first suggestion is to underpin a more controlled point-based immigration system that informs policy development, so that there will be a process for measuring and modelling immigration and its impacts.

However, criticism of the Office for National Statistics (ONS) revolves around accuracy, methodology and timelines of its data.

One way to assist is with the roll out of digital border arrangements including e-visas, e-gates, and new information systems, which will improve the accuracy of data gathered and measures taken, and would not affect the cooperation of common travel areas. In addition, the Government will work with the Migration Advisory Committee, the ONS and the OBR to overhaul future data gathering and research needed to develop accurate measures and forward-looking policies.

However, ONS statistics generally do not capture irregular migration. Hence, the true scale of migration is unknown, particularly regarding illegal entrants, small boat arrivals, and overstayers.

2. Reducing overseas recruitment in favour of training UK workers and also changing the pattern and skill mix of migration which would allow to ensure subsequent better contribution to the UK. This will include:

a. very specific new and stronger visa controls;

b. increasing the threshold for skilled worker visas to graduate level so there will be a reduction in lower skilled migration;

c. only allowing a narrow list of critical shortage occupations on to temporary shortlists;

d. closing the social care visa route to overseas recruitment;

e. restricting dependents for lower skilled workers on temporary shortage lists and increasing salary thresholds for all visa holders seeking to bring in dependents; and

f. increasing English language requirements for visa holders and their dependents.

Separately, new reforms for asylum and border security would be put in place to reduce small boat crossings, dismantle the gangs responsible for them and increase deportations and returns.

What are the changes for Skilled Worker Visa?

The skilled worker visa was introduced in late 2020, replacing the Tier 2 work visa, and the new route included a work visa requirement for EU Nationals and a lowering of the skills threshold for skilled workers.  In August 2020, the Health and Care Worker route was introduced and expanded in February 2022 to include the social care workforce.

Following concerns of exploitation and abuse in the care sector, and subsequent scrutiny of employers in adult social care, the number of healthcare worker visas granted for both main applicants and their dependents fell in 2024.

Increasing the salary threshold in April 2024 resulted in declining visas across the skill levels, but the average skill level is still lower than it was historically.

At the same time as overseas recruitment, including of lower skilled workers, shot up, labour market participation in the UK residents has dropped.

Under-investment in training in the UK workforce contributed to poor levels of productivity and hindered its economic growth.

The Government intends to reverse the long-term trend stated above, by reducing the overseas recruitment and by reducing the level of unemployment and economic inactivity in the UK. To support this goal, they will draw on better data available to make informed decisions about the state of the labour market and the role different policies should play, rather than being reliant on migration.

What’s the new threshold?

The Immigration Salary List, which gives people discounts from salary thresholds will be abolished. The Government will ask MAC to undertake a thorough review of salary requirements, including discounts to ensure that international recruitment is never a cheaper alternative to fair pay, and ensure that salary levels reflect the new changes to the immigration system.

In relation to those who are already utilising the skilled worker visa, from the point that the skills threshold is raised, existing skilled worker visa holders will continue to be able to renew their visa, change employment and take supplementary employment in currently eligible occupations. However, new applicants from overseas or those applying to switch from other immigration routes will have to follow the new rules.

The Government will establish a new Temporary Shortage List to provide time-limited access to the points-based immigration system. Occupations below RQF Level 6 must be listed on the Temporary Shortage List in order to qualify.  Sectors will only be potentially added to the Temporary Shortage List if they are key to the industrial strategy or delivering critical infrastructure, and only following advice from the MAC. These jobs, falling below RQF Level 6, will also be subject to new restrictions on bringing dependents.

What is wrong with the new threshold?

The feasibility concern is whether the domestic labour market can fill the resulting gaps. Sectors like hospitality, agriculture, manufacturing, and parts of the public sector (e.g. education, healthcare assistants) have relied on non-graduate workers from abroad in recent years. The government’s new Temporary Shortage List, in theory allows some below-RQF Level 6 roles if truly needed, however, it remains unspecified.

Fewer workers – especially in lower-wage jobs – can have a variety of economic effects. On one hand, it may lead to upward pressure on wages for those jobs (as employers must raise pay to attract scarce domestic workers), potentially benefiting some British workers. However, there’s a flip side: if businesses face sharply higher labour costs or simply cannot find enough staff, they may cut services, raise prices, or even go out of business. This is because migrants contribute to the economy as workers and consumers. They fill jobs, but also spend money, pay taxes, and spur demand for goods and services, creating additional jobs in a virtuous cycle.

The Office for National Statistics has found that migrant workers often earn more and experience faster wage growth than their UK-born peers, meaning their contribution to per-capita GDP is positive.

If the bar is set too high or the process too slow, industries facing acute shortages may simply experience unfilled jobs, harming services and output. On the other hand, if the “shortage list” loophole is used too liberally, it could undermine the goal of reducing migration.

The White Paper floats the idea of even barring sponsors from issuing new visas if they fail to invest in UK talent. Enforcing this would require robust audits and data-sharing between education/training bodies and the Home Office – a level of coordination that may be difficult to achieve in practice. Past initiatives, such as the Immigration Skills Charge, have raised funds for training broadly, but directly compelling individual firms to prove training efforts is unprecedented. It may face resistance or evasion.

What about the Adult Social Care visa?

The Government has been clear about its concerns about the adult social care visa and the introduction of this route has led to significant concerns of abuse and exploitation of individual workers. They will, therefore, end overseas recruitment for social care visas in line with the wide reforms to the skills threshold and will close the social care visa to new applications from abroad.

For a transition period until 2028, they will permit visa extensions (including switching employment and applying for settlement) and in-country switching for those already in the country with working rights, but this will be kept under review.

Critics for the closure of this route may emphasise that the social care sector in the UK has long struggled to attract sufficient domestic workers due to low pay, tough conditions, and an aging population driving up demand. Recent figures show thousands of vacancies and heavy reliance on migrant carers. The White Paper’s solution is essentially to stop the inflow of new migrant carers and force the sector to improve wages and conditions to attract UK workers. However, without a significant injection of funding (most social care is state-funded or capped by local authority budgets), it is unclear how care providers can raise pay enough to recruit domestically.

The Home Secretary has indicated that a “fair pay agreement” will accompany the visa closure, implying some wage floor or national bargaining outcome. Even if that materialises, it will take time to implement. Meanwhile, from 2025 to 2028, no new overseas care staff can be hired.

Fewer working-age taxpayers also means less revenue. The government might save slightly on not having to provide as many services (though many immigrants have limited recourse to public funds anyway during their initial years). However, if labour shortages in healthcare or social care worsen, that could increase costs; for instance, if elderly people can’t get home care due to staff shortages, they might end up in NHS hospitals longer, costing more.

What are the changes to the Global Talent visa?

The current immigration system includes targeted routes for individuals who promote growth to come to the UK including entrepreneurs, through the Innovator Founder route, future leaders in key fields through the routes including global talent and high potential individuals.

The Government will go further in ensuring that the very highly skilled have opportunities to come to the UK and access the targeted  routes for the brightest and best global talent by increasing the number of people arriving on the very high talent route, alongside faster routes for bringing people into the UK who have the right skills and experience to supercharge UK growth in strategic industries.

a. The Government will make it simpler and easier for top scientists and design talent to use global talent visas and will review the Innovation Founder visa to ensure it supports entrepreneurial talent currently studying in UK universities to move into the visa, so that they can build their business and career in the UK.

b. The Government will double the number of workers at an overseas business with the aim of establishing the presence in the UK and will explore a targeted and capped expansion of the HPI route, looking to double the number of qualifying institutions while maintaining the focus of the route on individuals that will have the most benefit to the UK workforce.

c. The Government will also streamline the process for employers and skilled workers to get visas, reducing bureaucracy and supporting growth.

What is wrong with these reforms?

The volume of reforms means the Home Office will be extraordinarily busy rewriting rules, updating guidance, and retraining staff. New visa conditions (e.g., the Temporary Shortage List process, increased English testing, and extended monitoring of migrants over 10 years) will require upgraded IT systems and staffing.

Even with streamlining, caseworkers and Home Office solicitors will have more work. The department’s notoriously large backlogs (for example, in asylum decision-making and certain visa queues) raise doubts about bandwidth. In short, administrative capacity is a limiting factor: any issues, such as IT failures, insufficient staff training, poor inter-agency communications, could delay or blunt the reforms’ impact.