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ARTICLE · 03 SEPTEMBER 2026

The Freight Recession Is Over. Is Your Supply Chain Ready?

The trucking sector, responsible for moving nearly three-quarters of all goods in America, is experiencing a fundamental shift as freight capacity contracts due to carrier exits, fleet downsizing, and regulatory pressures. With spot market rates rising above contract rates for the first time since early 2022 and structural driver shortages expected to worsen, shippers who treat this as a temporary cyclical event may find themselves unprepared for sustained rate increases. Understanding the root causes of th

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The trucking sector is the workhorse of the U.S. transportation network. Nearly three-quarters of all goods Americans buy are moved by truck, and there is no substitute for getting goods on shelves and keeping regional warehouses stocked. If the economics of this system are out of balance, the impact will be felt across most industries' supply chains.

Having made it through the Great Freight Recession, the industry’s worst downturn in decades (2022-2024), rates are climbing sharply, not driven by booming demand, but because freight capacity has contracted due to carriers exiting the market, fleet downsizing, and slowing equipment investments. Shippers who treat this as a cyclical event by waiting for a return to lower rates are likely to be caught flat-footed.

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