John Healey’s first Budget as Chancellor of the Exchequer was briefed as being a low-key affair, with little by the way of tax reform.
And so it proved. The ambitions for this Budget were to provide some targeted cost-of-living support to those most under pressure, reassure the bond markets of the Government’s fiscal credibility, and pursue measures that help the economy to grow. Given that these objectives can be in tension, the measures announced by Healey were limited and small scale. Andy Burnham’s rhetoric of earlier in the year of radical change was not matched by the measures set out in the Budget.
The fiscal backdrop was challenging. Events in the Middle East have had a detrimental impact on economic growth and the public finances. More specifically, the cost of Government borrowing has increased by £14bn for this financial year. Growth in 2026/27 is forecast to be higher than the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) previously predicted (1.2% rather than 1.1%) but is now