State Of The Consumer 2026: Past The Peak?

Consumer sentiment just hit a decade low. Consumer spending just had its best month in four years. Only one of those numbers describes what happens next.

In July, the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index sat at its lowest level in 10 years. In June, total U.S. card spend grew 6% year over year, the strongest reading in over four years. Same consumers, same summer, two different stories.

AlixPartners has fielded its State of the Consumer survey since 2009, tracking behavior across restaurants, convenience stores, and travel and leisure. The Summer 2026 wave, 1,000 U.S. consumers surveyed July 14 to 16, points to an answer: sentiment stopped predicting behavior months ago, and the pullback consumers describe is no longer the pullback they are making.