ARTICLE · 03 DECEMBER 2025

Autumn Budget 2025

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This was a Budget that was heavily trailed (to the extent that the contents were inadvertently published by the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) in advance of the Chancellor delivering her speech)...

United KingdomTax

This was a Budget that was heavily trailed (to the extent that the contents were inadvertently published by the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) in advance of the Chancellor delivering her speech), but there was one big surprise. The expectation was that Rachel Reeves was going to need to find £20bn or more just to meet her fiscal rules, the reality was that she just needed to find £6bn. The OBR had downgraded its projections for productivity growth, but its forecasts for tax receipts were better than expected, in part because higher inflation forecasts are good for raising tax revenue.

This still left Reeves with substantial challenges. She needed to satisfy the markets about fiscal sustainability, her Party on delivering on Labour values, and the general public, with whom she polls poorly.

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