UK Referendum And "Brexit"

What's happening?

• On 23 June, the United Kingdom is holding a referendum on withdrawing from the European Union. A vote to leave is forecast to have significant impacts on financial markets and participants in those markets on a global basis. These forecast impacts include short-term extreme volatility in global currency, equity and fixed income markets in the immediate aftermath of a vote to leave. Long term forecast impacts include destabilization of the EU as whole, significant impact on U.S./EU trade, and massive dislocations in the valuations of European banks and brokers, along with a range of other macroeconomic factors.

Why is this important?

• The outcome is almost impossible to predict. Polling is consistently in the 46/44 remain/leave range, with the remaining 10 percent being "undecided." Statisticians believe that the majority of the undecideds are more likely to vote to leave the EU. The timing of the vote also minimizes likely turnout amongst