The Hague NATO Summit Reflects A Permanent And Unfinished Shift In Europe's Security Architecture

This week's Hague Summit ended in relative success, with NATO allies committing to a "quantum leap" in defense spending to 5% of GDP, split between 3.5% for core defense requirements (related to NATO's Capability Targets) and 1.5% for security-related investments, like civil preparedness. While consequential, the "skinny" summit was also choreographed to sidestep potentially thorny issues: the final declaration was only five paragraphs, omitting any language on shared threat perceptions, defense planning, or Ukraine's future. Several strategic questions remain unanswered—including a potential shift in US force posture, what a future European pillar of NATO would look like, and how to manage a rapid increase in defense investment. While European rearmament will yield positive economic spillovers for European economies, burden-shifting introduces transition risks that must be managed to maintain credible deterrence.