Ahhh, the heady days of 2016. Remember that?
17.6 million vehicles sold in the United States. As reported
by Automotive News (and others), Deutsche Bank
says those good times may very well be over and the Auto Industry
may be in for some financial uncertainty. Analysts Rod Lache, Michael Levine and Robert Salmon released a report recently
stating that "Somewhat ominously, today's market
increasingly resembles one we described in 'A Triple
Threat' (Feb. 20, 2004)."
What about today's market is a concern? First, cars
are way too durable – scrappage is down to 11 million
vehicles/year (from 13 million). This has led to there being
270 million total vehicles on the road. Second, auto loans
are not so hot these days. Loan delinquencies have been on
the rise across the board – prime and subprime.
Finally, used vehicle prices are expected to decline.
Oversupply has become a concern. Used-vehicle prices fell
faster in February than previously, which might be the
