Our latest repost:
We begin our analysis by addressing the foundation of the entire
body of data analytic scholarship on appellate judging: competing
theories of judicial decision making.
The oldest theory by far is generally known in the literature as
"formalism." This is the theory we all learned in
law school, according to which every decision turns on four
factors, each completely extrinsic to the background and ideology
of the individual judge: (1) the case record on appeal; (2) the
applicable law; (3) controlling precedent; and (4) judicial
deliberations (at least in the appellate world). As
Judge Richard Posner of the Seventh Circuit has pointed out,
Blackstone was describing the formalist theory when he described
judges as "the depositories of the laws; the living oracles,
who must decide in all cases of doubt, and who are bound by an oath
to decide according to the law of the land." In
Federalist Paper No. 78, Alexander Hamilton was expounding the
