U.S. Banks Quarterly Survey

In the latest installment of our U.S. Bank Quarterly Survey, we review the current banking landscape and its historical context with two questions in mind: First, what do bank fundamentals tell us about the state of the U.S. economy (recognizing that this is a retrospective or coincident analysis)? And, second, what can we infer about the capacity and willingness of banks to extend credit (a more forward-looking inquiry)?

We find that tepid aggregate loan growth excluding lending to non-depository financial institutions ("NDFIs") reflects a bifurcated economy in which overall growth is concentrated in a few sectors (e.g., AI capex). A similar theme emerges in reported loan demand and credit performance.