AI will weaponize antitrust. AI markets have high fixed costs,
winner-take-all dynamics, platform leverage, bundling power, and
data lock-in. These dynamics predict concentration. And market
concentration is an accelerant for antitrust litigation—both
private and government. We saw it with IBM, Microsoft, and the
telecom wars.
Private actions will move faster than government
enforcers—not because they are necessarily stronger on the
merits, but because they are less constrained by politics and
bandwidth. A well-timed complaint can slow a rival's rollout,
trigger regulatory scrutiny, and create settlement leverage. When
markets tip quickly, the losers litigate.
In an AI arms race, companies will lobby regulators to block
rivals' acquisitions; challenge the integration of AI into
dominant platforms as unlawful tying or bundling; and claim
exclusive data access is anticompetitive. The theories will be
familiar: monopoly leveraging, tying, exclusive dealing.
