Perhaps it is just overexposure or end-of-year fatigue, but, to
me, the AI debate seems to be increasingly unhinged.
I have recently attended several AI forums, where incredible
claims were presented as if they were mundane facts.
Examples include the imminent arrival of artificial general
intelligence (AGI), the already widespread business use of
sophisticated autonomous agents, generative platforms that are
driving such prolific productivity gains that many companies have
stopped hiring, and viable quantum computing by the end of the
decade.
However, 1) I do not see any evidence of this happening on the
ground, and 2) there is a lack of corroborating scientific
research.
In fact, the
AAAI 2025 Presidential Panelfound that 76% of
surveyed AI researchers believed the scaling up of large language
models (LLMs) was "unlikely" or "very unlikely"
to ever achieve AGI; multiple
studiesshow that most agentic AI deployments
remain confined to pilots and even then
