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ARTICLE · 06 OCTOBER 2011

Investment Outlook - October 2011

Smith & Williamson
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Markets had a torrid time in the third quarter and exhibited enormous volatility. The reason for this was that they had to contend with two powerful and simultaneous headwinds.

United KingdomStrategy
Smith & Williamson
Smith & Williamson

WORLD

Awaiting the euro rescue 'D' Day

Markets had a torrid time in the third quarter and exhibited enormous volatility. The reason for this was that they had to contend with two powerful and simultaneous headwinds. The first was a rapid decline in economic momentum in both the US and Europe. Confirmation of this came with the recent reduction in growth estimates for advanced economies by the IMF. They reduced their 2011 estimates from 2.2% to 1.6% and their 2012 estimates from 2.6% to 1.9%. The rapid decline in US, UK and German bond yields to 60 year lows is also a powerful indicator that developed economies are recalibrating to a much lower nominal GDP growth trajectory (the New Normal).

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