How To Be A Better Forecaster

It is not hard to think of recent events that have taken experts by surprise. From Donald Trump's success in the Republican presidential primaries to Jeremy Corbyn's election as leader of Britain's Labour Party the last year offers plenty of examples of insiders getting it wrong.  Pollsters, regulators, intelligence experts and, of course, economists, have suffered reputational setbacks in recent years as the future failed to conform to their theories and expectations.

The financial crisis is perhaps the most egregious example. It was, in part, a product of errors made by smart, well-informed players. It has provided a rich vein of material for the economists and psychologists seeking to understand why insiders so often make avoidable mistakes.