Economy: UK On The Global Stage (Part One)

As the UK's role as a leading actor on the global stage hangs in the balance, head of Alternative Investments, Simon Burgess shares his insight and commentary on the state of the UK's economy and the global backdrop.

As the tight rope walk progresses one step at a time, with the occasional step back, the audience is poised; some anticipating a fall with others willing the country on to a finale and rapturous applause.

While the constitutional chaos (as political journalist, Robert Peston described it) plays out centre stage, the British economy balances on a ball at the edge of the circus ring.

So, is the UK heading for a recession or was it just August talking? Defined as two consecutive quarters of the economy shrinking, a UK recession is, to some people, now looking more likely, but to others it will probably be avoided this year. It is a fact that markets are typically down in August, as has been proved every year for the past decade.