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ARTICLE · 08 JULY 2005

Economic Update – An August rate cut would be the first of a few

Roger Bootle’s response to July’s MPC meeting

United KingdomStrategy
Roger Bootle, Economic Adviser, Deloitte
Roger Bootle, Economic Adviser, Deloitte
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  • Today’s decision by the MPC to keep interest rates on hold at 4.75% makes a rate cut in August to 4.5% almost certain. I believe that this would be the first step towards much lower rates.
  • It became clear that the interest rates cycle was about to turn downwards last month when it was revealed that two members of the Committee voted to reduce interest rates at June’s meeting. Since then, the discussion has probably been more to do with the timing of the first interest rate cut rather than whether one is warranted.
  • The weakness of some of the most recent data meant that a cut in rates today would not have been too much of a surprise. Indeed, last week’s release of the National Accounts revealed that GDP growth in Q1 was revised down from a quarterly 0.5% to 0.4%. What’s more, the annual growth rate was revised down from 2.7% to just 2.1%.

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