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ARTICLE · 13 JANUARY 2006

Economic Update – Rates may fall in February

Roger Bootle’s response to January’s MPC meeting

United KingdomStrategy
Roger Bootle, Economic Adviser, Deloitte
Roger Bootle, Economic Adviser, Deloitte
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  • Today’s decision by the Monetary Policy Committee to leave interest rates on hold at 4.5% does not rule out further interest rate reductions. I think there is a good chance that rates will be cut by 0.25% in February. And even if the Committee holds back for longer, I still see interest rates falling to 4% by the end of the year.
  • February is likely to be the earliest month when the Committee could feel confident that the threat of higher wages growth in response to last year’s rise in inflation has passed. The annual growth rate of average earnings fell from 4.1% in September to 3.6% in October. And the early evidence on the January pay round has been subdued, with the British Footwear Association announcing a modest 2.5% pay rise for its members.

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