2016 started with markets focused on the problems of the Chinese
economy. Five weeks later, the focus has switched to the state of
the US economy.
There's more nervousness about US growth today than at any
time since the summer of 2011, when the US government seemed close
to defaulting on its debts and the euro crisis was kicking off.
The R word – recession – is starting to crop up in
the news headlines. In the last few days we've spotted:
"US Recession is Back on the Table", "US recession
looms", "Portfolio Moves as US Recession Signals
intensify".
The American economy has been growing for the last five years
and, until very recently, was seen as a bright spot in the global
economy. When, in December, we asked UK Chief Financial Officers to
name the region of the world economy about which they were most
optimistic for 2016, the resounding answer was the US. In December
the US Federal Reserve felt sufficiently confident about
America's recovery to raise
