Five Scenarios That Change The 2026 Retail Game

Uncertainty is baked into the 2026 outlook for retail, which remains one of the most disrupted industries. For all the predictions over how the industry will change, a state of permacrisis makes it challenging to act decisively—no one knows where tariff policy or geopolitical conflict will land months from now—but retailers cannot wait for the next shoe to drop.

Many pundits and prognosticators make bold and often binary predictions for the retail market ahead. Our point of view is that retailers need to look at the realm of possible outcomes, knowing the flywheel of disruptive events will accelerate, and focus instead on controlling the controllable. To that end, we've analyzed the major variables, and created scenarios for the most game-changing shifts retailers may face this year: