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ARTICLE · 10 MARCH 2026

2026 Freight Outlook: Navigating The Shift From Capacity Surplus To Policy-Driven Contraction

Ankura Consulting Group LLC
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The Great Freight Recession reached a critical pivot point in 2025 as the market moved toward a structural rebalance.

United StatesInternational Law
Keith Jelinek
Keith Jelinek
Rick Maicki
Rick Maicki
David Tait
David Tait
Corinne Lim
Corinne Lim
Christian Kazanowski
Christian Kazanowski

Freight Market Rebalancing: Accelerated Supply Correction Shifts Leverage from Shippers to Carriers

The Great Freight Recession reached a critical pivot point in 2025 as the market moved toward a structural rebalance. While shipping demand remained stagnant, the industry realized a supply correction as carrier exits accelerated. Depressed new truck orders — stifled by Trump administration tariffs, equipment inflation, and sustained low demand — have triggered a meaningful erosion in overcapacity. Consequently, load-to truck ratios climbed throughout 2025, signaling a transition in market leverage back to carriers and driving a steady increase in spot rates.

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Policy Shifts and AI Adoption Will Guide a Continued Market Rebalancing in 2026

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