We first began studying the implications of self-driving cars,
or "AVs", two years ago. At that time, observers
predicted that fully autonomous "Level 5" cars (i.e., a
car with no steering wheel) would not appear in significant numbers
until 2030. In 2015, Lux Research observed:
Fully autonomous driving may happen by 2030, but only
in highly restricted environments and likely only at low
speeds.
That prediction now appears to be well off-target. The world may
not be ready for the pace at which AVs come to dominate city
streets.
Fast forward to 2017. In April, Elon Musk said a Tesla will
drive in full autonomous mode from Los Angeles to New York before
the end of year, and predicted that its autonomous cars will be
reliable enough to win regulatory approval within two years. Every
major car manufacturer is investing heavily and building
partnerships to gain the computer hardware, sensor and artificial
intelligence expertise to compete in the AV market. On May
