EU Referendum - Some Thoughts

Pretty much everyone agrees that the UK's referendum has put us into a world of uncertainty and elevated risk. For once the use of the term "Earthquake" in the headlines was not hyperbole.

Saying that things are "uncertain" is obvious but not very helpful.  Quite naturally theories, speculation and forecasts multiply.

Some argue that since the referendum vote was only advisory, 70% of MPs favour Remain and some Leave voters seem to be suffering buyers' remorse, the UK will never leave the EU. Others think that the EU will seek to minimise uncertainty and send a message to other Brexit-inclined movements in Europe by hustling the UK out as quickly as possible.

There are plenty more theories, most of which, like the bookies odds and the opinion polls before the referendum, will probably prove wrong. What follows therefore aims to be rather less speculative.