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ARTICLE · 11 MAY 2009

Economic Update – Further Action Won’t Bring A Quick Recovery

The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) decision both to complete the previously announced £75bn of asset purchases and to extend it by another £50bn underlined both the uncertainties surrounding its effectiveness and the severity of the deflation risk in the UK economy.

United KingdomStrategy
Roger Bootle, Economic Adviser, Deloitte
Roger Bootle, Economic Adviser, Deloitte
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  • The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) decision both to complete the previously announced £75bn of asset purchases and to extend it by another £50bn underlined both the uncertainties surrounding its effectiveness and the severity of the deflation risk in the UK economy. I think that the MPC may yet have to do even more.
  • It's hardly as if the quantitative easing (QE) undertaken so far has been a resounding success. The fall in bond yields seen after QE was initially announced has now been largely reversed. 10 year gilt yields are now higher. And even though corporate bond spreads have narrowed a touch, corporate bond yields have also reversed most of their previous falls.
  • Of course, without QE, yields could have risen even further. And corporate bond issuance has remained robust (albeit in line with its trend pre-QE). However, if the Committee is relying at all on lower gilt yields to simulate the economy, it is clear that the action taken so far has not

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