It has not been a good start to the year for the global economy.
Expectations for the pace of GDP growth are falling. The dominant
themes in financial markets are volatility and uncertainty. The US
S&P500 equity index fell 5% in the first four days of trading
this year, its worst four-day opening in history. Most economists
think global growth prospects are more likely to weaken than
strengthen in coming months.
It is not hard to think of risks. Take your pick from:
China's slowdown, emerging market turmoil, migration, Brexit,
terrorism, the US Presidential election, North Korea, Syria, Iran
vs. Saudi Arabia, NATO vs. Russia, tensions in the South China
Sea...
The sharp decline in corporate risk appetite seen in the latest
CFO Survey demonstrates that such uncertainties affect investment
and hiring. Yet numerous other factors also shape growth. Some
risks do not materialise (who is talking about the US debt ceiling
now?). Moreover, the principal effect of
