Emerging Market Debt: Another Test For The Financial Markets?

With oil hitting a 12-year low below $30 per barrel and with the volatility and decline of worldwide equities markets during the first weeks in January 2016, some are warning of a return to the bleak days at the beginning of the Great Recession.¹ In our April 2014 Commentary "High Yield Debt: Credit Bubble and Litigation Risks," we warned—perhaps presciently—that a credit bubble may be forming in the high yield debt ("HYD") market, including in the emerging markets ("EMs").² In particular, soaring debt levels in emerging markets such as China, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Turkey, and Brazil raised concerns about the risks associated with debt issued from emerging markets.³ Over the past 18 months, this trend has continued,⁴ and concerns about a potential bubble have intensified. The events of the last two weeks only add further credence to existing fears that the increasingly volatile HYD market will trigger another global financial crisis.⁵