China Economic Monitor: 2025 Q3

The report points out that in H1 2025, China's GDP grew by 5.3%, exceeding the government's 2025 growth target of 'around 5%.' Real GDP growth in Q2 reached 5.2% year-on-year, down 0.2 percentage points from Q1. On a seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter basis, GDP grew by 1.1%, above the historical average since 2021 and stronger than market expectations. Despite the drag from elevated U.S. tariffs, China's Q2 economic growth continued to demonstrate resilience. On one hand, export front-loading activities remained active, supporting robust domestic production. On the other, under the equipment upgrades and consumer goods trade-in programmes, household consumption and manufacturing investment provided a solid foundation for domestic demand.