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ARTICLE · 23 DECEMBER 2025

Economic Outlook 2026

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There were reasons, particularly around U.S. President Donald Trump's April 1 "Liberation Day," to fear a global trade war or corrections in financial markets that would cause a recession in the United States...

CanadaStrategy
Serge Dupont
Serge Dupont
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2025: Disruptive U.S. Policy and Economic Resilience

The U.S. and global economies proved resilient in 2025.

There were reasons, particularly around U.S. President Donald Trump's April 1 "Liberation Day," to fear a global trade war or corrections in financial markets that would cause a recession in the United States and a sharp slowing of the global economy.

In fact, while growth in the United States and most major economies slowed in 2025, other policy and market factors offset at least in part the early effect of disruptive policies by the U.S. administration.

The United States's trading partners chose to avoid an all-out trade war, and most negotiated some form of accommodation with President Trump.

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