Bennett Jones Spring 2021 Economic Outlook: Beyond COVID

Executive Summary

While economic recovery from the pandemic to date, internationally and in Canada, has been uneven and bumpy, a large share of output and jobs have been regained, and the prospects for advanced economies are strong.

If immediate attention must still be focused on overcoming the pandemic durably, the time is right for Canada to look beyond COVID, and to articulate and execute a strategy for investment and long-term improvement in our competitiveness, productivity, and standard of living.

The Outlook to the End of 2023

In our baseline scenario, on the assumption that the pace of vaccination is maintained, if not accelerated, we expect the recovery in advanced economies to shift into higher gear in the second half of 2021, before easing gradually during the next two years. Output would return to its pre-pandemic level by the third quarter of 2021, and back to its pre-pandemic trend level by the end of 2022.