The economic and financial outlook has rarely been as uncertain
as it is today. The legacy of COVID-19, the conflict in Ukraine,
skyrocketing oil prices, spreading inflationary pressures and
rising interest rates make a complex cocktail of risk for everyone,
but especially for commercial real estate.
Two years ago, as the full reality of the COVID-19 pandemic was
just becoming clear, economists were justifiably concerned that a
repeat of the Great Depression of the 1930s could be in the cards.
Good policymaking averted that painful scenario. But shutting an
economy down and then starting it up again turns out to be more
difficult than it sounds.
By the fall of 2020, the economy had already recovered to
between 97–98% of where it was prior to the pandemic.
Conditions were very difficult for the 2% economy, to be sure, but
the 98% economy was not just playing defense: it was growing,
adding new jobs throughout the pandemic. These jobs included a wide
range of
