Ontario's Cap And Trade: Some Early Impact Estimates

Duncan Rotherham of ICF International delivered a presentation at the Ontario Energy Association (OEA) breakfast on February 18, 2016. He made a number of predictions about the ability of Ontario's pending Cap and Trade regime to achieve the 2020 and 2030 carbon reduction targets. He also provided cost estimates to typical homes and small businesses which can be expected over the next 15 years. A copy of Mr. Rotherham's presentation is available through the OEA website.

The presentation noted that Ontario's electricity sector is not a significant contributor to carbon emissions with the closure of its coal-fired generating stations. While natural gas generation accounts for about 15 percent of the province's electrical supply, it is the use of natural gas for other purposes (heating and commercial and industrial use) and transportation fuels which are the largest contributors.