As has been reported all over, it looks like the Automotive
industry will set some sales records in 2016 (see here, here, and here for example). As summarized by JD Power, "The full-year sales forecast
of 17.5 million units would surpass the total from 2015 by about
5,000 units. Light trucks figure into the upsurge, along with
higher incentives—eclipsing $4,000 per vehicle for the first
time on record—as automakers clear out 2016 model-year
vehicles." When read that way, this news is less encouraging
than it appears on its face.
Setting sales records is almost never bad. However, if they are
set with huge incentives, discounts, and an intention to clear out
inventory, that is obviously not any reason to anticipate further
growth in 2017. In fact, a deeper dive into the numbers shows some
slightly less favorable statistics. For example, the Wall Street Journal reports that "Retail
sales, which strip out sales to fleet buyers, such as rental-car
companies, were expected
