Recession Readiness, Part 3: Don't Just Make Plans, Create Options

How long do you think the recession or downturn will last? How deep will it be? We surveyed 3,000 executives around the world for the AlixPartners Disruption Index survey; 13% said they thought a downturn would last less than a year; 39% said it would last between one and two years; 35% see three to five years of slow business; and 8% see a recession lasting five years or more. Though economists have forecasts, the fact is that no one really knows. Disruptive events—surging Covid in China, for example—could render the best forecasts meaningless. As The New York Times put it in a headline: "Trust the Models? In This Economy?"

In these circumstances, you need more than a plan: You need options—an already-prepared set of actions to take depending on the business climate. What levers would you pull in a relatively mild, short recession? A moderate one? A long, deep one? To answer these questions, you need to ask a couple of others, too: Where will a recession hit you