With the war with Iran grinding on as talks stall and allies split, hope is dimming for a quick, favorable end. Over the last several weeks, the US has publicly messaged a shortened timeline of two to three weeks for the end of fighting, citing productive negotiations with Tehran and a series of military victories. Meanwhile, the US and Iran appear far apart in ceasefire negotiations. On the ground, the conflict has widened and the Strait of Hormuz is functionally closed, belying the promised winding down of the war. Diverging interests in Jerusalem and Gulf capitals further constrain US options to de-escalate. A “good” end to the Iran war – one that sees US, Israeli, and Gulf objectives achieved, minimizing further damage to the global economy – is difficult to envision in the near term. As it stands, a more protracted conflict or an exit that leaves US war aims unfinished risks longer-term instability in the region and global energy markets.
