Ankura Monthly Economic Indicators Overview [April 2023]

March 2023 retail sales were somewhat disappointing, dropping month-to-month for the 4th time in the last five months, and may point to coming challenges in many retail segments. The 30-year Fixed-rate mortgages (FRM) rate dropped slightly to 6.27%, compared to 5.0% in 2022 but housing markets and the retail and consumer sectors associated with them continue to feel the impact of elevated rates. Consumers remained concerned - the Consumer Sentiment Index dropped 7.5% MTM, and while troubles in the banking sector had little impact, consumers are concerned about a potential recession.

Personal disposable income rose 8.4% in February, exceeding the Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) of 5.6%; personal consumption expenditures increased 7.6% but consumers are taking on more debt as revolving credit debt continues to climb, increasing 15.2%.