ARTICLE · 14 AUGUST 2018

An August Midterm Cheatsheet: 2018 By The Numbers

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Election prognosticators argue that the "holy trinity" of POTUS approval, Right Track/Wrong Track and Generic Ballot preference foretell the outcome in November.

United StatesGovernment, Public Sector

Eric Tanenblatt

John Russell IV

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Election prognosticators argue that the "holy trinity" of POTUS approval, Right Track/Wrong Track and Generic Ballot preference foretell the outcome in November.

Looking back over the last 9 midterms, we see that presidents with a sub-50 percent approval rating lose an average of 40 seats in the House and 6 seats in the Senate. We also note that the summer Right Track/Wrong Track number seems to align better than the generic ballot as an early indicator of seat loss.

By the numbers:

Democrats in 56 House districts surpassed Republican incumbents in second-quarter fundraising, according to the latest Federal Election Commission filings. Sixteen of those House Republicans finished the quarter with less cash in their campaign accounts than Democratic opponents, while no Democratic members lag their Republican challengers in cash.

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