A Look Ahead To Summer …

The Memorial Day weekend is often viewed as the unofficial start of the summer season, and gives us a good opportunity to look forward.

Today, oil prices are back down a little but active contracts are up for the 10^th straight week. At a minimum, many have taken some comfort in the fact that prices largely have stabilized in the last few weeks in the $55-60 range.

At a recent conference, there seemed to be a consensus that the price recovery was not going to be J-shaped or U-shaped, but W-shaped. That is, most people expected a price decline in the next few weeks/months, though few seemed to expect a steep plummet. Most of the panelists agreed the issue is less the exact price of a barrel of oil but more some consistency and certainty.