As we move further into 2026, dealmakers are navigating a market
defined by momentum—but also meaningful restraint. Global
transaction values have generally rebounded over the past year,
driven in part by larger transactions, even as overall deal volume
has remained selective and uneven. Research suggests the market is
not simply “back.” It is evolving—shaped by
uneven buyer conviction, tighter underwriting, and persistent
policy and trade uncertainty.
What's Keeping Dealmaking Cautious
The principal challenge in today's market is not
opportunity, it is durability. Inflation has moderated and
financing markets are functioning more predictably than they were
at peak volatility. At the same time, tariffs have introduced a
unique form of uncertainty: announced one day, revised the next,
and difficult to model with precision. In a business and tax
environment, uncertainty is often what stalls M&A activity.