Today's entry analyses whether the energy crunch is
advancing or receding.
Back in April last year, I posted a blog entry about whether, by
analysing applications under the Planning Act 2008, the likelihood
of the 'lights going out' was getting further away or
nearer. Rather than being a breakfast cereal, the 'energy crunch'
is the point at which electricity generation capacity falls below
demand.
I concluded that old generating stations were switching off more
slowly than expected but that new generation was also coming on
stream more slowly, so for that year things hadn't changed
much, when they probably needed to change. How has the picture
changed since then?
This is topical because on Tuesday, the chief executive of gas
and electricity regulator Ofgem, Alistair Buchanan, gave a
pessimistic speech that warned that things were getting worse. Like
Mr Micawber, he
predicted that electricity demand would outstrip supply in three to
five years' time, result:
