Patterns In The Noise – Data On Crime, Arrests And Disposals

Is policing getting better or worse? The Telegraph reduced its conclusions to a headline last week as it declared 'Police arrest half as many people as they did a decade ago despite rise in crime'^[1].

Statistically, this is correct. Home Office figures published in October 2017 show that that the arrests have fallen from almost 1.5 million in 2008 to 779,660 in 2017^[2], whereas offences recorded have increased 13% from 2016 to 2017^[3]. Things are clearly getting worse.

Before reaching this conclusion, note that The Telegraph headline compares arrests in the previous decade with recorded crime in the previous year. Considering recorded crime over the decade shows a reduction until 2014, followed by a sharp increase to 2017. The figures for 2007 and 2017 are in fact remarkably similar. To consider another data set, the Crime Survey for England & Wales (which relies upon crime as reported by the public, rather than as recorded by police) concludes that 14% of