"Should the United Kingdom remain a member
of the European Union or leave the European
Union?"
Background
The UK's EU referendum will take place on Thursday 23rd
June.
Over the last 40 years UK voters have, on average, been in
favour of EU membership, albeit by a fairly narrow margin and with
wide fluctuations. Over the last year the opinion polls show a
marked narrowing of the pro-EU lead, partly in response to the
migration crisis. Across four polls carried out over January and
the first week of February, the stay vote averaged 44% and the
leave 40%, with 16% undecided.
What is clear is that Brexit is a high-impact event with a
non-trivial probability of materialising. The issues involved,
particularly post-Brexit legal, regulatory and trading
arrangements, are complex and uncertain. Inevitably given the
historic importance of the issues, much of the debate around Brexit
is partisan and/or speculative.
