The Brazil–Türkiye Cattle Corridor · Article 3

2027/28 Outlook: When Three Crises Arrive at the Same Time

How the convergence of El Niño, fertiliser scarcity, and a Brazilian credit crunch will test every operator in the corridor.

This third article in the Brazil–Türkiye cattle corridor series looks forward to 2027 and 2028, and considers what happens when a market already under significant pressure must deal simultaneously with an extreme El Niño and a fertiliser market that is not expected to normalise before 2028. 

The first article in this series described a corridor governed by state quotas and a single buyer, ESK (Et ve Süt Kurumu), with Turkish importers structurally dependent on Brazilian cattle. The second showed how the Strait of Hormuz closure and the Russia–China fertiliser squeeze transformed that predictable trade into a high-volatility, margin-squeezed business. This third article considers the added complexity of climate change and examines the exponential impact that may have.