OEB's First Long-Term Carbon Price Forecast Report

On May 31, 2017, the Ontario Energy Board (OEB) issued its first Long-Term Carbon Price Forecast Report (the Report). The Report covers the 2018-2028 period and was prepared by ICF Consulting Canada. The Report projects a carbon price of $17 per tCO2e in 2018 rising to $57 per tCO2e in 2028. The price is forecasted to increase by around $1 per tCO2e each year for the first five years. The latter five years will see a more significant increase by around $5 to $10 per tCO2e each year.

The OEB indicated in the Regulatory Framework for the Assessment of Costs of Natural Gas Utilities' Cap and Trade Activities, issued on September 26, 2016, that it would develop a long-term carbon price forecast (LTCPF) that would be updated annually. The LTCPF is provided to assist Ontario's gas distributors (including Enbridge, Union Gas and Natural Resource Gas) in their preparation of a compliance plan (discussed  here and here) and the OEB in evaluating the cost-effectiveness of such