Canadian Oil – No Easy Way Out

In its Report on Canada's Energy Future 2017 ("2017 Report"), the National Energy Board makes energy supply and demand projections for the roughly quarter century period running from 2016 to 2040. While the key findings in the 2017 Report are noteworthy on their own, they also highlight the long-term effects of some issues affecting Canada's oil industry – notably potential shortfalls in pipeline takeaway capacity.

The 2017 Report indicates that Canadian oil production is expected to grow from 4.0 million barrels per day (MMb/d) in 2016 to around 6.3 MMb/d in 2040 (p.33). And yet the 2017 Report also clearly demonstrates that, while this expected growth has been anticipated for years, there could well be a significant shortfall in pipeline takeaway capacity to move all this oil to market (p.41).