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ARTICLE · 11 OCTOBER 2013

Economic and Market Outlook - October 2013

Failing any further deterioration in the global economy, the RBA could keep interest rates on hold for the next quarter.

AustraliaStrategy

International economy

Overview

The pace of global growth has broadly accelerated since our July commentary. The United States has added over 2 million jobs in the past year and robust corporate profits have driven sharemarkets higher. The slowdown in China has at least been temporarily reversed with another round of stimulus reviving the rate of growth to above 7.5%. In addition, the Eurozone came out of recession in the June quarter.

Global GDP and manufacturing output PMI

Source: Markit ... JP Morgan Global All Industry output index at 2 1/2 year highs In August

United States

The US recovery has broadly been driven by a lean and profitable corporate sector that has benefited from low interest rates, a favourable exchange rate, a flexible labour market and cheaper energy costs courtesy of the coal seam gas boom. This has helped sustain the recovery since the Global Financial Crisis (GFC). Nevertheless, the recovery has been one of the weakest in

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