The April note asked in its title "
Is Recession Looming?" and answered in the
negative. The present note sends a broadly similar message. A
recession at some time in the future is, sadly, inevitable. There
have always been recessions in the past and there will,
unfortunately, be recessions again in the future. Western Europe,
for instance witnessed six recessions since the early 1970s, one on
average every 8 years. Since the last one was in 2012-13, this
would suggest that the next one should hit in 2020-21. Arithmetic
averages, however, do not have much scientific value. Hence the
hope that the "inevitable" future recession will be
postponed.
Many observers are particularly worried about the U.S. The
economy has just entered the 121st month of expansion
since the Great Recession of 2008-09 (the U.S. avoided the European
debt recession of 2012-13), turning this upswing into the
country's longest. But clouds are gathering. The stimulus that
came from Trump's tax
