FY 2016 H-1B Cap: What Are The Odds?

Last year at about this time, I published a blog post captioned, "FY 2015 H-1B Cap:  What are the Odds?". According to my very basic calculations, I estimated that the odds of receiving one of the limited FY 2015 H-1B numbers was about 43% under the regular cap, with slightly better chances for those with a Master's or higher degree.  Overall, if you didn't deducted the 20,000 advanced degree petitions from the total, chances were about 50/50.

For FY 2016, the odds are worse.  This of course is due to an increased demand on the part of US employers.  Indeed, the US Citizenship and Immigration Service (USCIS) announced that it received "nearly 233,000 H-1B petitions" toward the FY 2016 cap.  That is 60,500 more than last year, and more than enough to fill an entire year's regular (non-advanced degree) cap if you deduct the numbers set aside for Chile and Singapore.