Subprime Surprise? Subprime Auto Overcollateralization May Not Be Overly Protective

Historically, investors in subprime auto asset-backed securities (ABS) have been able to sleep well at night. They have rested easy in part because credit enhancements in securitizations have protected them from losses.  Today, due in large part to the safety expected from credit enhancements, rumblings about the parallels between subprime auto lending and pre-financial crisis subprime mortgage lending – and the cataclysmic end those parallels could portend – have barely disturbed the subprime auto ABS market.

Overcollateralization (O/C) rates are often touted as particularly protective for subprime auto ABS.  It's true, of course: As investors have rightfully demanded greater O/C rates on riskier pools, they have created greater protection for themselves. That much we know. What is not as clear, however, are the answers to two more questions:  First, will the main indicators of crisis that foretold the subprime mortgage crisis – some of which can be found in varying