Insider Predicting? CFTC’s First Action — And How We Got Here

On April 23, 2026, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) announced the filing of its first insider trading enforcement action involving event contracts for the misuse of government information against an active-duty service member in the U.S. Army who allegedly used classified nonpublic information to trade on U.S. operations to capture the former Venezuelan President through “Operation Absolute Resolve.” That same date, the U.S. Attorney’s Office for the Southern District of New York brought criminal charges against this individual in the same court, alleging conduct similar to that alleged in the CFTC’s complaint. This article provides an overview of the predictions markets and insider trading as well as the buildup to the CFTC’s first enforcement action in this space.