Evolution Of Prices For Mobile Spectrum And Possible Explanations

The adoption of 4G and 5G technologies has led to a remarkable surge in mobile data consumption, prompting regulators worldwide to make substantial amounts of new spectrum available to mobile operators. However, there are now signs the growth in mobile data consumption is slowing. In this white paper, Managing Director Hans-Martin Ihle, Senior Managing Director Richard Marsden, and Economic Analyst Yasmine Frizlen examine trends in spectrum pricing and develop a new method for forecasting mobile data demand that better fits the available data.

The paper utilizes a global dataset of more than 400 spectrum auction prices from 2007 to 2023 to demonstrate that spectrum prices have generally declined over the past two decades. The authors explain that while mobile data traffic has expanded, the release of new spectrum has generally kept pace and helped avoid capacity issues on mobile networks.