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Public markets have rebounded from Middle East conflict disruption with record bond issuance and tightening loan spreads, yet the mid-market tells a different story. Cash-flow deal activity has declined 20% from late 2025 highs, while market composition shifts reveal banks regaining share from credit funds and asset-based lending expanding. With geopolitical uncertainty, AI disruption, and rising base rates on the horizon, borrowers face a critical window where spreads remain tight but all-in costs are pois